The extension of classical analysis to time series data is the basic problem faced in many fields, such as engineering, economic and medicine. The main objective of discriminant time series analysis is to examine how far it is possible to distinguish between various groups. There are two situations to be considered in the linear time series models. Firstly when the main discriminatory information contained in mean function and secnodly when the mean functions are equal and discriminotary information is in the autocovariance functions. The latter case is more interested because the the first case is well documnted.The classical method for discrimation of time series is based on likelihood ratio approach. Using this approach the vector x has to be allocated to H1 or H2 leads to the discriminant function dQ (x) = x' (R2-1 - R1-1) x (Shumway and Stoffer, 2006) in where x is the the R1 and R2 are the covariance matrices under and models, respectively.Another approach is based on assessing distance between models.Two important and common distance measuers, Kullback-Leibler information measure, KL, and Chernoff information measure, CH. In this case x is allocated to H1 or H2 depending on disparity measure between the sample spectrum of and two models (H1 or H2), (see Kakizawa et al., 1998).In this article KL and CH have been adopted to both autoregressive models and moving average models.Three methods, classical method (call Shumway method) has been compared with KL and CH criterions.The peformance of method has been carried out using a numerical study. One hundred time series each of length two hundred points simulated from the first model, say H1, and subjected to the discrimination criterion obtained from Kullback-Leibler, KL, and Chernoff, CH, crierions. The number of series that were misclassified out of hundred was noted.The results showed that three method work well for both autoregressive or order of one and moving average order of one models. The miscllasifican rate decreases when the distance between two populations increases. However, the performance of KL method is superior than both CH and Shumway methods.

In this study, we have demonstrated that differences in the attitude, behavior and fertility level of ethnic groups are the reaction of their different position in the educational system caused by unequal development. Findings show that there are deep educational inequality, sex imbalance in literacy and level of education, with higher intensity among Kurd ethnic group, and significant differences in the attitudes, behavior and fertility level among ethnic group.Yet, after controlling the effect of independent variables, ethnic differences in fertility declined from 2 children into 0.57 children. In general, 39.3% of ethnic group's fertility variance is explained by the variables studied.Because of high level of educational inequality, attitudes and fertility ideals are also different and support high and low fertility Among Kurds and Turks respectively. These different attitudes caused different demographic functions and continuation of this situation will cause demographic divergency become the predominant in surveyed society.

Gender socialization, as one of the most basic types of socialization, affects a person's individual and social life, including the stability of his or her marital life. The aim of this study was to explain the relationship between gender socialization and divorce between 178 divorced women and 222 women with emotional divorce, which was conducted by survey method in Bandar Abbas. This study used biological and social theories to explain gender socialization and theories of structural functionalism and the love triangle to explain divorce. In the present study, simple and stratified random sampling proportional to volume was used for women with emotional divorce and chain sampling was used for divorced women. Questionnaire data were collected through interviews and face validity was confirmed through literature review and expert judgment, structural validity was confirmed by factor analysis and its reliability was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha. The results showed that gender socialization of 29.4% of divorced women and 70.6% of women with emotional divorce is traditional, and on the other hand 60.2% of divorced women and 39.8% of women with emotional divorce, Had a modern gender socialization. According to the results of Chi-square test, there is a significant relationship between the type of gender socialization of women, gender values, gender inequality and power relations with the type of divorce. Accordingly, women with emotional divorce have a more traditional outlook than divorced women.

The dynamism, growth and youth of a country's population as an opportunity and privilege have always been the focus of policymakers and researchers, and it is clear that "empowering the working-age population" is one of the most important wise policies that can open the horizon of growth and progress in the face of the country. Dealing with the policies of increasing the fertility rate and increasing the population in order to maintain the young image of the country has become common and general in Iran for nearly a decade, and the importance of this policy cannot be hidden or denied. But what should not be neglected in this period is the demographic window of opportunity. If the young and working-age workforce is wasted and the country cannot achieve economic growth, and at the same time, if it is accompanied by a decrease in the fertility rate, the country will face a disastrous horizon. In this research, using the future research method of scenario planning, four different scenarios of the relation of the two uncertainties of seizing the demographic window of opportunity for economic growth and the dynamics of the fertility rate and population growth have been identified and introduced (the four scenarios of "Zayndehabad", "Nazaabad", " "Zayandehviran" and "Nazaviran") and suggestions for the occurrence of the desired scenario have been presented.

From a demographic perspective, this study focuses on social responsibility as an indication of socio-cultural changes in the contemporary world, which has also been recognized in the second demographic transition theory as the most significant determinant of the changes in family and fertility. The research data is based on a survey conducted in urban-rural areas of Gorgan and has been analyzed by SPSS24 and AMOS25. The results obtained for Cronbach’s alpha, Kaiser-Meyer-Oklin, and Bartlett's test of sphericity are 0.954, 0.787, and 10702.896 respectively. According to the results, about one-third of the respondeants hold a high or very high level of social responsibility, and the remaining two-thirds hold a low level and middle level of social responsibility. The fFemale population has a higher level of social responsibility than the male population. Also, age and responsibility are correlated: the older the age, the higher the level of social responsibislity. The multivariate results confirmed that the higher levels of education and income lead to a higher level of social responbislity. In sum, the sustainable success of the higher childbearing-oriented policies rests upon the government’s comprehensive programs in order to meet responsibly a wide range of the needs in society that will also improve the individuals’ responsible behaviours and committed cooperation. Extended AbstractIntroductionThis research paper takes a demographic approach in order to examine the patterns and determinants associated with social responsibility. According to the second demographic transition theory, the social and cultural changes in the contemporary societies throughout the world have been identified as the underlying determinants of the changes in family and fertility. It is also worthwhile noting that social responsibility serves as an important indication of socio-cultural changes. More specifically, such emerging forms of family and childbearing patterns in the modern societies as marriage and fertility decline, cohabitation, childlessness, one-child parenthood, etc. are closely associated with social and cultural changes including social responsibility. Accordingly, this research paper attempts to provide research-based evidence to examine the patterns and determinants of social responsibility from a demographic perspective.Method and DataThe research findings presented and discussed in this paper are based on a survey conducted in urban-rural areas of Gorgan in the north of Iran that deals with a total number of 22250 individuals as its statistical pool. In accordance with the Cochran formula, a sample of 400 males and females has been determined and included in the survey. The research sample belongs to 1340s, 1360s, and 1380s birth cohorts who and hasve been selected on the basis of the stratified sampling method. The research data have been collected on the basis of the researcher-made questionnaireair in accordance with the review of theoretical and empirical literature. Upon data collection, the research employed both SPSS-24 and AMOS-25 and has analyzed the research data on the basis of both the method of exploratory factor analysis in SPSS-24 and confirmatory factor analysis in AMOS-25.FindingsThe present research has been built upon a main dependent variable, i.e., social responsibility which has been divided into five subgroups including legal responsibility, political responsibility, economic responsibility, societal responsibility, and environmental responsibility. The research questionnaire included a wide range of statements and questions in order to measure each of these five subgroups of responsibility. Using the Likert Scale, the respondents’ answers to each of these questions could be ranged from ‘totally agree’, to ‘totally disagree’. The research findings on levels of social responsibility have been made on four major levels: Low Level of social responsibility (ranging with scores from 25 to 50), Middle Level of social responsibility (ranging with scores from 51 to 75), High Level of social responsibility (ranging with score from 76 to 100), Very High Level of social responsibility (ranging with score from 101 to 125).The research findings have indicated these two general patterns: first, approximately one-third of the respondeants hold a high level or very high level of social responsibility. Second, the remaining two-thirds hold a low level and middle level of social responsibility. Further analysis in order to explore the effects of the key demographic determinants on these general patterns has shown that social responsibility is substantially associated with demographic determinants. This suggests that social responsibility is significantly affected by gender so that the female population is more likely to hold a higher level of social responsibility as compared with the male population. Furthermore, age composition plays a substantially important role in the level of social responsibility: the older the age, the higher the level of social responsibislity. In other words, younger age cohorts are more likely to hold a lower level of social responsibility. Finally, the multivariate results of this analysis not only have confirmed these major patterns discussed above, but also have supported the fact that social responsibility is significantly associated with two other key determinants including the levels of education and income. This suggests that those with higher levels of education and income are also more likely to hold a higher level of social responsibislity.Conclusion and DiscussionIn conclusion, this research paper has shed further lights on the patterns and determinants associated with social responsibility from a demographic perspective. It has been both theoretically discussed and empirically investigated that the socio-cultural changes including social responsibility play a substantial role in emerging forms of family and demographic changes in the contemporary societies throughout the world such as significant changes in marriatal ties and childbearing patterns, marriage and fertility decline, cohabitation, childlessness, one-child parenthood, etc., as recognized in the second demographic transition. In sum, the main issues discussed and the research findings presented in this paper have also supported this underlying association between family and demographic issues on the one hand, and socio-cultural changes on the other hand with specific emphasis on demographic dimensions and determinants of social responsibility.Finally, the policy-related recommendations arising from the present research paper rely on echoing the underlying fact that the sustainable success of the higher childbearing-oriented policies rests upon the government’s comprehensive programs in order to meet responsibly a wide range of the needs in society that will also improve the individuals’ responsible behaviours and committed cooperation. This particularly applies to countries with a larger proportion of younger age cohorts including Iran with a median age of 34 years old approximately. It clearly reflects a huge young generation who are also more likely to be attached and driven by the modern communication technologies and social media worldwide, which will lead to a more challenging situation for social responsibility from a demographic perspective.

"Demographic window" refers to a particular period, in the demographic history of a population, in which age-dependency ratio falls to an unprecedented low level. This period is short, the beginning and end of it can be estimated, and it lasts about three to four decades.The Demographic window of Iran began at the threshold of 2006 census and is expected to end by 2046. Therefore, it is expected to last for almost 4 decades. Thereafter, the population of Iran moves towards becoming old, to an unprecedented level in its history.In the demographic history of each country, demographic window opens once, and during the time it is open, it provides an exceptional opportunity for the development of the country. However, it is not automatic. It should be activated and guided. Demographic window becomes a demographic bonus only with appropriate preparation: policy-making, planning and correct implementation of programs.Several years, apparently unnoticed, passed since Iran entered its demographic window. Time is moving fast and this short time span becomes shorter. Therefore, it seems urgent to conduct required studies for the appropriate utilization of this unrepeatable opportunity for the development of the country.

Introduction: Asking questions about the nature of a rural area, attempting to identify its traits, and construing the rurality realm are some of the discussions in rural studies. The concept of rurality has remained ambiguous and concentrating on its different magnitudes and grades is necessary. In scientific discussions, different definitions and categorization methods have been proposed for measuring rurality differences. The population density, population decrease and increase rates, size of habitat, structure of local economy, accessibility, and landscape are some of the studied parameters in this area. The most operational definition, which is used in quantitative studies, is based on spatial and demographic theories as they present a simple definition for geographic categorization. Most of rural areas have undergone population growth regarding their continuous developments. It seems that there is a population stability in some of these areas even if they have not got an enhancement. This article aimed to structurally review and analyze temporal and spatial evolutions of demographic rurality in Isfahan Province. Materials & Methods: Isfahan Province as the study area has got 88 and 12% of urban and rural populations according to the census of 2016. The village was the unit of analysis in this research. The statistical community included all villages with more than 4 households (totally 768 villages) based on the databases of two latest housing and population censuses conducted in 2006 and 2016. Considering the mentioned censuses and taking several correction steps, the research data and variables included the number of households, male and female populations (6 years, over 6 years, 10 years, over 10 years, under 14 years, 14-64 years, and over 65 years), total population, number of literate persons, and number of employees. The processed indicators for modeling and analyzing demographic rurality and its evolutions in the studied time sections could be mentioned as family size, sex ratio, youth rate, aging rate, aging ratio, dependency ratio, dependency burden, literacy rate, employment rate, and population growth rate. These indicators were operationalized and calculated cross-sectionally at the beginning and end of the period and longitudinally for evolutions over the period. Discussion of Results & Conclusions: After studying nearly 800 villages during the decade, a slight decrease in family size was observed. The sex ratio had averagely increased by 17/3 people. There was a slight decline of the youth (25/0) in the villages. However, there was an extreme range from decreasing by 32 to increasing by 36 in this regard. The aged population had also increased slightly by 76%. Also, the indicator of aging ratio almost showed a similar changing procedure. The dependency ratio had nearly remained unchanged. There was only 22 units of increase in the dependency burden, ranging from 58 to 10. The average literacy rate had undergone an overall increase of 28. 3%, but there was a vast variation after considering the villages separately. The employment rate had decreased 86. 1% in return. There was not a considerable change in the total population of the villages. It had only decreased to 192 people, which showed a growth rate of 0. 004 with the variation of 21 to 6/20% among the villages. Overall, the structural components for rural population in the province had nearly remained unchanged during the studied decade. A significant structural model was found in the province based on the statistical modeling performed for analyzing demographic rurality and its evolutions with the indicators of family size, sex ratio, literacy ratio, aging ratio, dependency ratio, and youth ratio in 2006. The indicators of aging and dependency ratio were compatible with the family size, literacy rate, and youth ratio with a negative impact on demographic rurality, while aging ratio played an intense negative role in it. Spatial analysis was regionally and separately done for 3 types of villages in Isfahan Province based on the developments of population configurations in the rural mountainous, plain, and desert areas. The positive changes in the rates of population growth, household dimension, and literacy and negative changes in the aging rate were observed to be similar in all the studied areas. There was more similarity in the structural changes of rural population in the plain and desert areas, which were weakened by changes in the dependency ratio and strengthened by changes of the sex ratio, thus remaining in equilibrium. In return, the negative changes of employment rate and more appropriate position of the young population within the age composition had caused more weakening and strengthening in the structural changes of rural population in the mountainous areas, respectively.